COE dips from its record. The bid count tells you more than the price.
Every category fell in the 23 September exercise, Category A by less than 1%. The more useful change was in bidding: 4,210 bids for 3,229 certificates, against 4,776 for 3,253 two weeks earlier.
All five categories closed lower in the second September exercise.
| Category | 9 September | 23 September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | $133,009 | $131,890 | -0.84% |
| B | $135,001 | $133,000 | -1.48% |
| C | $93,101 | $92,144 | -1.03% |
| D | $12,556 | $12,201 | -2.83% |
| E | $137,890 | $137,000 | -0.65% |
Category A has come off its record of $133,009, set on 9 September. Category B has fallen by $2,001 and now sits $1,110 above Category A.
The price move is small
A change of under 1% in Category A is well within the normal movement between one round and the next. Premiums rose by $4,508 two weeks ago and have given back about a quarter of that. On its own, this result does not mark a turning point.
The bidding is the more useful signal
COE premiums are set by how many bidders compete for a fixed number of certificates. When that ratio falls, premiums tend to ease. When it rises, they tend to climb.
On 9 September, there were 4,776 bids for 3,253 certificates, or 1.47 bids for each one. On 23 September, there were 4,210 bids for 3,229, or 1.30.
The supply was almost the same. The number of bids fell by about 12%. That is a change in demand, and 1.30 is the lowest ratio of any exercise this year.
The fall shows up in both car categories. Category A went from 1.43 bids per certificate to 1.26, and Category B from 1.43 to 1.22.
One round is not a trend. But if the ratio keeps falling over the next two or three exercises, it would be the clearest indication so far that premiums have found a ceiling.
What to watch next
The next exercise opens on 5 October, with results on 7 October.
The more important date is later in October, when LTA normally announces the quota for November to January.
The quota is worth understanding, because the headline figure hides two forces pulling in opposite directions. Deregistrations are rising quickly. In Category A, deregistrations over the latest twelve months reached 33,941, up 37% from 24,855 a year earlier, and each quarter's quota is based on a rolling average of them. At the same time, the additional certificates LTA has been injecting since February 2025 are tapering off. In Category A they fell from 2,246 in the November quarter to 200 in the current one.
The result is a quota that has barely moved, at 19,085 overall. The November announcement will show which of the two forces is winning. If deregistrations keep rising while injections stay low, supply will start to grow on its own.
What this means for you
If you are buying new, a 1% move does not change the case for buying now or waiting. What would change it is a sustained fall in bidding, together with a rise in quota. Neither has happened yet.
If you are buying used, used prices follow COE with a delay of a round or two, and a move of this size is unlikely to show up in them at all. The more important factor remains which cars are available, which we set out in COE is back near its record.
If you are renewing, today's dip does not help you this month. The renewal price is based on a three month average that is still rising. See COE fell on 23 September. Renewal prices are still set to rise in October.
If you are selling and buying at the same time, the level of COE matters less than it seems. See Selling and buying in the same market.
Figures are from the LTA bidding exercises of 9 and 23 September 2026. Premiums change every round. Check the current results on OneMotoring before acting on them.
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